The Airbus A380 is dead

"El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!" (lightningzone) 02/01/2019 at 14:29 • Filed to: None

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As you know, most likely Emirates will cancel its last order for the A380, over major disagreements with Rolls Royce regarding A380 engines.

With Airbus right now in the position to negociate alternatives with Emirates, like the A350/A330Neo and trying to find new homes for the A380s, Emirates will no longer buy, it looks like it’s the end of the road for the biggest airliner in history.

The questions arising from this situation are:

Is Emirates gonna firm up the order for the 40 787-10's, it ordered at the 2017 Dubai Air Show, if they get a signifiant amount of A350's/A330Neos? Most likely not.

What will happen to the production facilities of the A380? Will they shut them down? Will they produce other aircraft there? Perhaps the hot selling A320 series? Perhaps something new?

All in all, the A380 was hugely expensive for Airbus. I’m not sure they even make a profit right now, on the A380's they do sell. From the technological point of view, the A380 is nothing less than a marvel. But from the commercial point of view, it’s a huge failure.

The sooner they end the project, admit they didn’t have the right vision for the future and move on to something new, the sooner they can stop losing money on it.

KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 02/01/2019 at 14:51

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Damn, I was totally going to buy a 20 19 model five years from now, after someone else had taken the depreciation hit . This is why we can’t have nic e things.

LastFirstMI is my name > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 02/01/2019 at 14:53

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You know what I hate the most about 380’s? Pulling up to the gate in another plane and seeing one unloading in the next gate- and knowing that those hundreds of people are all going to be in front of me in the customs/immigration line. 

For Sweden > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 02/01/2019 at 14:56

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RIP fuel-guzzling sky whale

Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 02/01/2019 at 14:56

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Interesting, failed projects like this have at times been fatal blows to airplane manufacturers, doesn’t sound like it will be in this case though.

WilliamsSW > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 02/01/2019 at 15:00

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Well, Emirates is the reason it existed to begin with (probably because they misread the market themselves) , so if they’re not buying it, it’s dead.  

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > For Sweden 02/01/2019 at 15:04

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Probably the best description I have ever heard.

facw > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 02/01/2019 at 15:06

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This seemed inevitable. The newer widebodies are more efficient despite being smaller. I’m sure you could design a bigger aircraft that would be more efficient per passenger mile, but given that I think both the A380 and the 747-8 are going to be money losers, it seems unlikely that anyone would risk a clean sheet design.

I do wonder if we could do better with these very large planes (or even widebodies in general) if we have airport infrastructure that was more appropriate to the number of people we need to load. Even when there are multiple jetways the airlines seem mainly to use one so their premium passengers don’t have to mingle with coach passengers, as opposed to speeding loading. And of course you’d really like to be able to load from the back as well, but that’s trickier to make work (the only jetways I can think of are the weird cantilevered over-wing 747 ones at Schiphol. Alternatively you could uses buses and airstairs , or the Dulles style mobile-lounges, but it’s clear those are even less popular.

sm70- why not Duesenberg? > KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time 02/01/2019 at 15:10

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I would’ve bought one if they’d had the guts to offer it with a manual.

facw > Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs 02/01/2019 at 15:10

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The L-1011 is probably the closest comparison, but that was Lockheed’s onl y jetliner, while A irbus has competitive entries across the spectrum so they can absorb the losses.

WilliamsSW > Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs 02/01/2019 at 15:13

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That was back in the dark days before airplane manufacturers were all government-subsidized

KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time > sm70- why not Duesenberg? 02/01/2019 at 15:13

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I know right? seriously, I would have bought one and done a proper Pratt & Wh itney swap.

Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs > facw 02/01/2019 at 15:15

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Yeah, it still seems like a GIGANTIC loss to absorb literally and financially. The sheer size of of everything that needs to be re-purposed or simply recycled and the fact that they must have billions upon billions into this.

I imagine some bonuses and salaries will suffer, haha. And sadly it could see it costing a lot of hourly workers their job.

Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs > WilliamsSW 02/01/2019 at 15:16

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Yeah and this is no longer the days that airliners put all their eggs in one airplane design. All the former airplane mfr’s have gobbled each other up already, leaving only two juggernauts in the large commercial airplane segment.

facw > Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs 02/01/2019 at 15:26

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They’ve built over 200, so while I doubt it made any money, they’ve had some opportunity to amortize. And they’ve known the end was coming so I’m sure they have the production rate low, decreasing the number of people who work on it.

There’s been talk in the past about finally doing a freighter version, but you’d have to imagine that would be throwing good money after bad at this point.

For the factories, I’d guess they shift other production to make use of most of them, though that’s expensive and time consuming. Assuming Brexit happens, they may need to juggle some production as a result of that, so unused space could be reallocated (I don’t think they’ll stop making stuff in the UK, since they are still a major Airbus stakeholder, and Airbus currently makes planes in the US and China, so obviously they can operate outside the common market , but they’ll almost certainly have things that need to be streamlines to avoid tariffs and customs delays.)

Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs > facw 02/01/2019 at 15:29

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Ah I see, all good points! This surely didn’t come as a surprise to anyone, haha. Now we wait for someone to have one of these as their private jet.

Personally I’d go for one that’s not operable, it’d make a sweet house.

WilliamsSW > Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs 02/01/2019 at 15:30

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True - although early on, the market was small and still developing, so it was pretty tough to field more than 1 jet airliner design. Offhand, I think it was only Boeing and Douglas that did that before Airbus came along (probably forgetting someone).

Comac hopes to make it 3 soon - we’ll see about that.

Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs > WilliamsSW 02/01/2019 at 15:33

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It’d certainly be cool to see another competitor, especially if they bring some revolutionary ideas to the table (although not the kind that put someones ass in my face that’s seated diagonally above me) .

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time 02/01/2019 at 15:34

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I was waiting for them to offer it in an AWD version, but they’re still NoWD so I’m going to keep driving my shitbox! 

WilliamsSW > Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs 02/01/2019 at 15:41

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Initially, it seems like Comac will be ‘same but cheaper’, but eventually that will change - that’s a smart way to enter, TBH.

For Sweden > Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs 02/01/2019 at 15:44

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The trick is to also sell warplanes.

Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs > WilliamsSW 02/01/2019 at 15:46

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Yeah, it’s probably the only way to enter. We’ve all seen how the supersonic approach goes and I imagine that otherwise the luxury market is also saturated.

Maybe the only other thing is a breakthrough technology of some sort that we cannot even predict yet.

WilliamsSW > For Sweden 02/01/2019 at 15:49

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Indirect subsidies >> direct subsidies

For Sweden > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 02/01/2019 at 15:52

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Fun A380 fact that an airline person told me and I just remembered:

A trans-P acific A380 flight burns about 225 tons of fuel, but the same flight with a 787 uses 95 tons of fuel.

WilliamsSW > Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs 02/01/2019 at 15:55

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Someone will prove me wrong eventually, but I’m not a believer in supersonic commercial flight - too many reasons why it’s not economical.

The best opportunities lie in making aircraft more fuel efficient/environmentally friendly, I think - which isn’t sexy unless you manage an airline’s finance department.

Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs > For Sweden 02/01/2019 at 16:00

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oh yeah, that’s definitely another angle.

As someone that works for a company a few of whose customers are military, try getting paid by them, damn.

Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs > WilliamsSW 02/01/2019 at 16:05

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Yeah, I agree. Unless we get a breakthrough technology that quarters the amount of fuel needed to fly somewhere and somehow doubles speed at the same time. The market just isn’t there with current tech.

someassemblyrequired > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 02/01/2019 at 16:06

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promoted by the color red > KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time 02/01/2019 at 17:13

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I just wish Airbus would sell a stripped-out A380 with just a cockpit and nothing on the inside so I can really enjoy flying like a cargo pilot.

Even though I wouldn’t actually buy it, of course. 

KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time > promoted by the color red 02/01/2019 at 17:14

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PREACH!

Jayvincent > promoted by the color red 02/01/2019 at 17:39

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I’d have one heck of a test fly, though!

f86sabre > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 02/01/2019 at 18:58

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I’d be figuring out how to install some large cargo doors on that beast ASAP.

For Sweden > f86sabre 02/01/2019 at 19:03

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Kalitta heading to Toulouse like

f86sabre > For Sweden 02/01/2019 at 19:07

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With a can of Tab full of whiskey and a grin on his face.

ranwhenparked > For Sweden 02/01/2019 at 19:24

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Even adjusting for the (substantially) greater passenger capacity on the A380, the 787 is still slightly more fuel efficient on a fuel burned per passenger/per mile basis.

However, the A380 would still make sense on a high density long haul route, IF the airline was convinced it could sell every seat on every flight, since running one full A380 with 853 passengers is still more fuel efficient than one full 787 with 440 passengers, plus a second nearly full 787 with 413 passengers.

But, that’s just not how the airline industry works anymore. In the old days of the hub and spoke route networks, you would use smaller airliners to funnel passengers from smaller airports to big hubs, and then consolidate them into larger planes to fly the mainline route to the next major airport. With a hub and spoke system, 747s and A380s could be run profitably between hubs consistently at or near capacity, thanks to the feeder network pushing passengers to them.

Now, people want more direct and more frequent flights, and airlines want the flexibility to be able to use their fleet on a wider percentage of their routes, instead of having a group of highly specialized giant planes that can only fly certain high density long haul schedules, and  only at peak popularity times.

ranwhenparked > f86sabre 02/01/2019 at 19:27

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Airbus had planned to do a freighter version, but they had so many delays and cost overruns on the whole program, that the cargo version was scrapped so that they could devote all their resources into getting the passenger one on the market as quickly as possible.

Supposedly, there are logistical issues with moving that much cargo in and out of the upper deck, but Airbus did believe that a business case existed early on that would justify solving that. 

For Sweden > ranwhenparked 02/01/2019 at 19:30

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Better to use two planes and fly the route twice, giving passengers the choice to pay more for their preferred schedule.

ranwhenparked > For Sweden 02/01/2019 at 19:38

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Exactly, different world now. The A380 was designed at a time when the traditional industry model was already starting to die off. 

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > f86sabre 02/01/2019 at 19:44

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Acording to a couple things I’ve read there is a sweet spot for air cargo density. And a   problem is the interio r volume is too large that that density would exceed the maximum takeoff weight.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > For Sweden 02/01/2019 at 19:46

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but the higher fuel burn leads to prices and orbitz, kayak etc means that the $ rules the day. 

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 02/01/2019 at 19:47

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brexit may kill it. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46984229